September 5, 2026:The escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea is creating a fresh threat to global grain supplies as both sides intensify attacks on commercial vessels, ports and critical maritime infrastructure. The growing risks to shipping are disrupting major grain export routes and raising concerns that food prices could climb further in international markets.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on September 4 that global food prices had reached their highest level in three and a half years. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August, its highest level since November 2022.
The security risks facing commercial shipping in the Black Sea have also risen sharply. According to The Guardian, July was the deadliest month for seafarers in the Black Sea since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Data from the Turkish seafarers’ union Türkiye Denizciler Sendikası showed that 35 vessels came under attack in July, leaving 23 people dead.
Attacks continued into August, deepening concerns over the safety of international commercial shipping routes. The head of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has also expressed concern over the deteriorating security environment affecting maritime trade worldwide.
Since the war began in 2022, Russian attacks on vessels berthed at Ukrainian Black Sea ports and on port infrastructure severely disrupted Ukraine’s grain exports. In July, Russia again targeted the key grain-export hubs of Odesa and Chornomorsk.
Ukraine’s retaliatory operations have also become a significant factor in the worsening maritime security situation. Kyiv has used drones to target Russian vessels, including oil tankers that Ukraine says are part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” which is allegedly used to transport oil while circumventing international sanctions.
Ukraine has also carried out attacks on vessels and port facilities at Novorossiysk, one of Russia’s most important Black Sea ports. The port plays a major role in Russia’s oil and grain exports.
The growing maritime danger was highlighted by an incident off Turkey’s Black Sea coast, where an abandoned Russian-flagged cargo vessel became stranded after its control room caught fire. The incident caused alarm among local tourists in the area.
Analysts at maritime risk assessment firm Vanguard say the security risks to shipping have now spread across a much wider area of the Black Sea. Attacks are no longer confined to ports and nearby waters, with vessels facing growing risks across broader stretches of the sea.
Meanwhile, grain exports from both Russia and Ukraine have fallen significantly, potentially putting greater pressure on countries that rely heavily on imports of wheat, barley and corn.
Russia is the world’s largest grain exporter, with a substantial share of its shipments destined for countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Turkey and Egypt are among the major destinations for Russian grain. Ukraine, meanwhile, ranks as the world’s fifth-largest grain exporter.
Following a series of Ukrainian drone attacks in July, Russia halted shipping in the Sea of Azov. Some grain exports were subsequently redirected through alternative routes, including the Caspian Sea, the Baltic Sea and routes across the Pacific.
According to Oxford Economics, more than 70 percent of Russia’s seaborne grain exports normally pass through Black Sea ports, while another roughly 20 percent moves through the Sea of Azov. Tatiana Orlova, the firm’s chief economist for emerging markets, said Russian grain exports fell to around 40 percent of normal capacity in August.
Ukraine has recorded an early and strong grain harvest this year but has been unable to export sufficient quantities through its Black Sea ports. According to a recent statement by Ukraine’s food minister, the country has managed to export only about one-third of its potential volume through a combination of sea, rail, river and road routes.
Wheat prices have already begun to rise in global markets, although they remain below the levels recorded when the war began in 2022.
Analysts warn that renewed disruption to maritime grain exports could push global food prices even higher. The situation could become more complicated as the impact of the Iran war, reduced grain production caused by extreme heat in Europe and the effects of El Niño add further pressure to global food supplies.
Oxford Economics forecasts that global food prices could rise by around 12 percent in 2026, followed by a further increase of 4.8 percent in 2027.
However, Orlova believes the world may avoid a food crisis on the scale seen in 2022. At that time, many major food-importing countries were poorly prepared for the sudden disruption. This time, a number of countries have built up grain reserves in advance, leaving them in a relatively stronger position to absorb another shock.
Even so, Orlova said the impact of the recent instability in the Black Sea on global food prices appears increasingly clear.
Sources: The Guardian; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Oxford Economics.