Nov. 7 — Israeli President Isaac Herzog faces a critical decision on Sunday over which candidate will receive the first formal mandate to assemble a governing coalition, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor former military chief Gadi Eisenkot commands an unencumbered pathway to a 61-seat majority following October’s fragmented parliamentary election.
President Herzog announced he would designate the first prospective prime minister on Sunday. While Eisenkot secured backing from 67 members of the 120-seat Knesset during presidential consultations concluded Thursday—compared to just 46 endorsements for Netanyahu—Eisenkot’s numerical edge depends on factions representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, which captured a historic 19 seats in the October 27 ballot. However, Eisenkot has ruled out incorporating Arab-led parties into his government.
Netanyahu’s position weakened during consultations after long-time ally United Torah Judaism (UTJ) withheld endorsement over disputes surrounding military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Israelis, reducing Netanyahu’s initial 53-seat right-wing bloc to 46.
President Herzog refrained from endorsing either contender publicly, cautioning that while the raw numbers appear decisive, “mutual vetoes across coalitions and internally” make forecasting viable governance extraordinarily difficult. Prior to the vote, Herzog reportedly explored brokering a national unity coalition between Netanyahu and Eisenkot to avoid protracted deadlocks.
Neither major political alignment achieved an organic 61-seat majority. Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious alliance controls 53 seats, four Jewish-led opposition parties backing Eisenkot hold 48, and Arab-led parties hold 19.
To reach the 61-seat mark without Arab-led factions, Eisenkot would need to flip both ultra-Orthodox parties: United Torah Judaism (7 seats) and Shas (11 seats). While UTJ signaled openness to negotiation, Shas formally reiterated its backing for Netanyahu on Wednesday.
The Arab-led bloc comprises the Joint List (11 seats) and the United Arab List, known as Ra’am (8 seats). While Ra’am expressed willingness to enter an Eisenkot-led administration, the Joint List offered confidence-and-supply backing from the opposition benches to avert Netanyahu’s return.
Both Arab parties endorsed Eisenkot during consultations with Herzog. However, Eisenkot imposed strict preconditions, including demanding that prospective partners classify Hamas as a terrorist organization. While Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas advocated for the complete disarming of Hamas, he declined the explicit terrorist designation.
Under Israeli electoral law, a candidate can technically form a minority government if they win a simple majority in a Knesset vote of confidence without reaching 61 seats. Netanyahu’s Likud party responded aggressively, warning that any governance reliant on Arab factions would pose grave security risks to the state.
Ahmed Tibi, a senior lawmaker with the Joint List, countered in remarks to the Associated Press that rejecting partnership with Arab representatives demonstrates that Israel functions as “an ethnocracy rather than an all-inclusive democracy.” Tibi emphasized that backing Eisenkot reflected public demands to halt the rule of Netanyahu and hardline ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, noting that while an interim “repair government” would not end the broader regional war, it could halt home demolitions, address internal violent crime, and restore basic political horizons for Palestinian citizens.
Under Israel’s Basic Law: The Government, the first designated nominee receives 28 days to build a coalition, extendable by an additional 14 days. If unsuccessful, the mandate transfers to a secondary candidate for a 28-day window. Should both fail, the Knesset enters a final 14-day window where any lawmaker commanding 61 signatures can claim the mandate. If that fails, parliament dissolves automatically, triggering snap elections within 90 days—a scenario that leaves Netanyahu in office as caretaker prime minister.
Regional political analysts, including Nehru Jamhour, observe that a protracted political impasse remains Netanyahu’s preferred strategic track, aiming to fracture opposition coherence and leverage caretaker authority into fresh elections.
Source: Al Jazeera Dispatches, Associated Press (AP) & Office of the President of Israel