India has come under scrutiny following the announcement of a new trade agreement with the United States, aimed at addressing the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Critics have described the pact as a form of “capitulation” to Washington.
The agreement, announced earlier this month, has raised particular concern among India’s influential farmer organizations, who fear that an influx of cheaper U.S. goods could harm domestic producers. Agriculture employs over 700 million people in India.
Details of the deal remain largely undisclosed, with only a joint statement and a White House fact sheet published. New Delhi has indicated that an interim agreement could be finalized by the end of March.
Trade expert Abhijit Das told AFP, “Nothing is certain under the Trump era.” He added that even if the deal is signed, its durability will depend on subsequent decisions by the Trump administration.
One of the most contentious elements is India’s expressed “intent” to purchase $50 billion worth of U.S. goods over the next five years, a sharp increase from last year’s $4.5 billion in imports from the United States. Ajay Srivastava of the New Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative described the goal of $100 billion in annual imports as “unrealistic,” noting that a significant portion of the target is linked to aircraft purchases. He explained that even if private airlines acquired 200 Boeing planes over five years—each priced at approximately $300 million—the total spending would reach only about $60 billion.
Some economists, however, argue that framing the target as an “intent” rather than a binding commitment reduces India’s risk. Shivan Tandon of Capital Economics noted that not making the goal mandatory lowers the chances of the deal collapsing.
Another controversial aspect is Washington’s claim that India agreed to halt purchases of Russian crude oil, prompting the U.S. to withdraw 25% tariffs. India, however, has not confirmed or denied this claim, emphasizing that its energy policy is guided by national interests and relies on diversified crude sources.
India’s imports of Russian crude, which exceeded two million barrels per day in mid-2025, fell to around 1.1 million barrels in January. State-owned refineries have begun sourcing Venezuelan oil for April deliveries, though it remains unclear whether Russian imports will be completely phased out. Mumbai-based Nayara Energy, partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft, plans to continue importing roughly 400,000 barrels per day, Bloomberg reported.
Darren Tay of BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said, “India is not publicly committing to a complete halt and continues to procure energy based on price and availability, leaving uncertainty on the Russian oil front.” Analysts conclude that the deal remains “fragile and politically contentious,” and it has yet to provide the kind of stability needed to alter India’s growth forecasts immediately.