WASHINGTON, Oct. 30 — Global commodity markets are headed for significant volatility this year, driven by the compounding fallout of active armed conflicts and climate disruptions, the World Bank warned in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook on Friday.
According to the multilateral lender, overall commodity prices are projected to rise by an average of 23% this year. The sharpest upward pressure stems from global energy markets, where crude oil prices are estimated to climb as much as 32%, pushing average benchmarks to $91 per barrel.
The report details severe supply chain disruptions triggered by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and heightened military confrontation across the Middle East. Bottlenecks along critical Black Sea grain export corridors, combined with depleted global crude oil inventories, have significantly constrained supplies. The adverse climatic impacts of the El Niño weather pattern have compounded the strains, pushing global food prices up by 10% this year, with an additional 7% increase forecast for next year.
Industrial transitions and accelerating technological demand are also driving metal and mineral markets. The World Bank forecasts that average annual prices for key industrial base metals—including copper, aluminum, and tin—will climb by 24.5%, while precious metals are expected to surge by roughly 40%.
The baseline forecast anticipates that commodity prices could ease by 7% in 2027 if geopolitical strains stabilize. However, the report cautions that under severe downside risk scenarios, global food price indices could breach the record highs recorded in 2022, potentially driving Brent crude beyond $105 per barrel.
To buffer developing and vulnerable economies from intensifying inflationary headwinds, the World Bank has placed up to $60 billion in financial assistance mechanisms on standby, with $25 billion already earmarked for rapid disbursement alongside frameworks designed to mobilize private capital.