Brazil has lost more than 8.5 million square kilometres of natural vegetation over the past four decades, an area more than twice the size of France, according to a study released Wednesday. The loss has increased the country’s vulnerability to extreme weather events associated with El Niño, researchers warned.
The El Niño weather pattern, confirmed in June, is expected to intensify toward the end of the year, prompting authorities and communities across Brazil to prepare for increased risks of droughts, floods and wildfires.
According to the annual land-use survey conducted by environmental monitoring network MapBiomas, natural vegetation covered 79 percent of Brazil’s territory four decades ago. That figure has now fallen to 65 percent.
The findings were reported by AFP from Rio de Janeiro.
The Amazon rainforest and the biodiversity-rich Cerrado savanna have experienced the largest losses of natural vegetation. Much of the cleared land has been converted for agriculture and livestock farming.
Agricultural and livestock activities now cover approximately 32 percent of Brazil’s territory, compared with just 18 percent in 1985.
MapBiomas analysis found that areas converted from natural vegetation to farmland tend to experience more severe impacts from extreme weather during El Niño events. Scientists expect the current El Niño to reach a similarly high level of intensity.
Tasso Azevedo, general coordinator of MapBiomas, told AFP that during the 2023–2024 El Niño, deforested areas of the Amazon experienced a greater rainfall deficit than areas that remained covered by forest.
In contrast, agricultural areas in Brazil’s southern grasslands received more rainfall than areas retaining natural vegetation.
The southern state of Rio Grande do Sul experienced devastating floods in 2024, killing around 200 people.
“Land-use patterns do not change El Niño itself. But they can change its effects,” Azevedo said.
He added that the findings demonstrate how decisions regarding land use can influence the level of climate-related risks and potentially determine how severely such weather events affect different parts of Brazil.
The study did not establish precisely why El Niño’s impacts are stronger in agricultural areas, Azevedo said. However, one possible explanation is that deforestation in the Amazon reduces evapotranspiration and local atmospheric moisture, contributing to higher temperatures and lower rainfall. El Niño may further amplify these effects.
Last month, the Brazilian government issued a warning over the possibility of an “extremely strong El Niño” this year. Forecasts indicate that sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean could rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
Such warming can significantly disrupt weather patterns around the world.
The Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA) has also warned that a potential “Super El Niño” could affect major agricultural commodities, including coffee, soybeans and sugar.
Source: AFP.